SHFE tin prices opened slightly lower in the night session, and trading in the spot market remained sluggish [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on October 16, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2511) opened slightly lower in the night session and maintained a fluctuating trend, continuing to trade around the 280,000 mark, closing at 280,070 yuan/mt, down 0.12% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) This morning (16th), the 2025 World Intelligent Connected Vehicle (ICV) Conference, jointly organized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the Ministry of Transport, and the Beijing Municipal People's Government, opened in Beijing. The three-day conference will bring together approximately 1,000 participants from government, industry, academia, and research sectors, both domestic and international, to discuss new trends, developments, and business models in the global ICV industry. Guo Shougang, Deputy Director-General of the First Department of Equipment Industry at MIIT, stated that the conference aims to promote practical international cooperation, featuring the first-time invitation of foreign ministerial-level officials, the "Ambassadors to China Tour of the Automotive Industry" event, and concurrent bilateral cooperation mechanism meetings such as China-UK and China-Germany, to comprehensively advance international exchange and cooperation. (2) Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and five other ministries jointly issued the "Three-Year Doubling Action Plan for Electric Vehicle Charging Facility Service Capacity (2025-2027)". The Action Plan proposes supporting measures for effective implementation, with various stakeholders in the charging industry fulfilling their respective responsibilities and working collaboratively to ensure the plan's solid implementation. Local government authorities are to formulate regional three-year action plans for charging facility construction based on local conditions and increase support for supporting power grid construction and upgrades. Grid companies are to enhance supporting grid construction and power supply service levels, and increase the construction of guaranteed charging facilities. Charging facility operators are to expand the scale of charging facility construction and improve service quality. Industry associations and consulting agencies are to refine technical standards and construction guidelines. (3) On October 15, data from the Passenger Car Association showed that during October 1-12, national retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 367,000 units, down 1% YoY compared to the same period in October last year but up 1% MoM. The national new energy passenger vehicle retail penetration rate was 53.5%. Cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year reached 9.236 million units, up 23% YoY. During October 1-12, national wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers reached 328,000 units, up 1% YoY compared to the same period in October last year but down 11% MoM. The national new energy passenger vehicle wholesale penetration rate was 60.2%. Cumulative wholesale sales since the beginning of the year reached 1.0775 million units, up 31% YoY.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply in major producing regions such as Yunnan is generally tightening, with some smelters maintaining production halts for maintenance in October (Bullish ★). (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remained cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. The boost from emerging sectors was limited: although the increase in AI computing power and the growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors.

Spot market: Trading in the spot market remained sluggish. Downstream enterprises mostly built up stockpiles before the holiday, and after the holiday, due to high and sideways prices, order volumes from end-users declined. Overall tin ingot demand was low, with only a small number of downstream enterprises making just-in-time procurement based on orders, while most traders reported transactions of only around 10 mt.

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